Argentina
Cambiemos Party Risks Losing Election in Buenos Aires Province, Threatening Macri’s Structural Reform Agenda During Second Term
Fri 08/02/2019 14:18 PM
The former minister of economy under Cristina Kirchner’s administration and now gubernatorial candidate for the Peronist Frente de Todos in Buenos Aires province, Axel Kicillof, continues to lead in the polls over Maria Eugenia Vidal from the ruling party coalition Cambiemos heading into the primaries. While all eyes are focused on the presidential campaign, pollsters consider the gubernatorial election in Buenos Aires province, the country’s most populous province, to be most at risk for President Mauricio Macri’s Cambiemos party and for his plans to continue pushing forward structural reforms in the country.
If Kicillof were to win, the former economic minister, who was behind Cristina Kirchner’s nationalization of Argentina’s oil and gas company YPF and implementation of capital controls, would gain control of a province that represents 40% of the country’s GDP.
“Base case scenario is that Macri secures a victory in [the] second round in November and Axel Kicillof wins in the Province of Buenos Aires,” said a political analyst in Washington, D.C., who is closely following developments in Argentina. Under that scenario, structural reforms that have been pushed forward by the Macri administration could face serious limitations during the next four-year term “unless the Peronists finds a way to work closely with Macri,” said David Tawill from Maglan Capital, who said he expects not much policy reform because of political fighting between the federal and provincial governments to consolidate power.
Structural reforms include the main economic targets agreed by the Macri administration and the IMF under the $57 billion standby loan agreement to further tighten the country’s running budget deficit, curb inflation levels and reduce subsidies to utilities, mainly in the power sector.
The Argentine primaries will be held in less than 10 days, and former President Cristina Kirchner and presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez’s Frente de Todos ticket continue to maintain a narrow lead over President Mauricio Macri in the upcoming presidential election, according to most polls. Although the Peronist ticket is leading the presidential race by 3 to 5 percentage points, a greater margin than the average 2 percentage points that its gubernatorial ticket has over Cambiemos in Buenos Aires province, the fact that only a simple majority is needed to win the province makes a Peronist takeover in the province more likely.
The Frente de Todos coalition’s gubernatorial candidate for Buenos Aires province is leading the race as 36.6% of the province’s electorate intends to vote for him, compared with only 34.6% for Vidal in the primary elections, according to the latest poll from Aragon. “Buenos Aires Governor Maria Eugenia Vidal is in more danger [of losing the election] than Macri, in a province that represents 38% of the nation’s electorate, there is a higher chance the ruling party will lose the province,” explained pollster Raul Aragon to Reorg.
Meanwhile, the latest poll from Management & Fit shows Kicillof leading with 44% of voter intention, a tight margin over Vidal, who garners 42.6% of voters considering only the gubernatorial race.
Evidencing the effects that Macri and Kirchner may be having on voter partiality, when voters are asked about their preference between the gubernatorial candidates themselves, the margin narrows. However, when Kiciloff is paired with Fernandez, and Vidal with Macri, and voters are asked about which gubernatorial candidate they support more, the gap widens in favor of Kicillof, leading with 45% compared with 39% for Vidal, showing that voter frustration with President Macri may be hurting Vidal’s chances to secure a victory in the province.
The primaries, or PASO, are viewed as the first real test for the candidates before the October elections, as its results tend to be a more accurate indicator for determining who will win the provincial elections, since there is no potential second-round vote as there is for the presidency.
Political analyst Enrique Zuleta Puceiro, who leads the OPSM political consultancy firm, warned that the Buenos Aires province’s urban middle class had really been hurt by utility rate increases and inflation, and that this could cost Vidal in the election. This was reflected by a recent report from the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL), showing that the purchasing power of the average salary in Argentina plunged by 10% in the first quarter of 2019. “Vidal has fallen a lot in the polls because of these economic issues, giving Kicillof more chances of winning,” he explained to Reorg.
Voters are attracted to the candidates for different reasons. Dissatisfaction with the economy is driving the support for the Fernández-Kirchner ticket, while low employment, reduced purchasing power and the overall economic situation are leading the push behind the Peronist voter intention, according to a poll from Oh! Panel. In contrast, the voter intention supporting Juntos por el Cambio is driven by a rejection by the overall policies pushed forward by Cristina Kirchner during her presidency, to continue improving democratic institutions and to boost foreign investments in the country, the same poll shows, as reproduced below:
Frente de Todos, led by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner, continues to lead with 42% intention vote, according to Oh! Panel, while Juntos por el Cambio, led by Macri and Pichetto, follows with 37% vote intention as of July. However, under a second-round scenario, the gap narrows to 43% who believe Kirchnerism will secure a victory compared with 41% for the Juntos por el Cambio coalition.
Vidal leads the ranks with the largest positive image among politicians within the official Cambiemos party with about 43% gross positive image, according to a poll from Universidad de San Andrés. However, Vidal lost more than 30 points compared with the 75% positive image as of the end of 2017 before the financial crisis unfolded in early 2018, driving the peso to lose more than half of its value, according to the same poll. At the national level, in a poll surveying the 23 provinces and the City of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof shows a positive image of 28%, while both candidates have a negative image of about 48% according to Universidad de San Andrés, as reproduced below:
Although more political analysts are seriously evaluating a scenario where President Macri retains the presidency and Cristina Kirchner’s party wins Buenos Aires province, it would still be an anomaly. “If Kicillof were to win in Buenos Aires province and Macri the presidency, there could be problems in terms of the ability for each party to implement their agenda,” Rouvier said, “Yet this possibility is far from certain, as very few times in Argentina’s history has the leadership of Buenos Aires province and the nation been divided between two parties.” This is because the party that wins that province tends to give a boost to the candidate of the same party running for presidency, as Vidal did for Macri in 2015, propelling him to a second round election win for the presidency. That situation that could be repeated by Kicillof and Fernandez.
If Kicillof were to win, the former economic minister, who was behind Cristina Kirchner’s nationalization of Argentina’s oil and gas company YPF and implementation of capital controls, would gain control of a province that represents 40% of the country’s GDP.
“Base case scenario is that Macri secures a victory in [the] second round in November and Axel Kicillof wins in the Province of Buenos Aires,” said a political analyst in Washington, D.C., who is closely following developments in Argentina. Under that scenario, structural reforms that have been pushed forward by the Macri administration could face serious limitations during the next four-year term “unless the Peronists finds a way to work closely with Macri,” said David Tawill from Maglan Capital, who said he expects not much policy reform because of political fighting between the federal and provincial governments to consolidate power.
Structural reforms include the main economic targets agreed by the Macri administration and the IMF under the $57 billion standby loan agreement to further tighten the country’s running budget deficit, curb inflation levels and reduce subsidies to utilities, mainly in the power sector.
The Argentine primaries will be held in less than 10 days, and former President Cristina Kirchner and presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez’s Frente de Todos ticket continue to maintain a narrow lead over President Mauricio Macri in the upcoming presidential election, according to most polls. Although the Peronist ticket is leading the presidential race by 3 to 5 percentage points, a greater margin than the average 2 percentage points that its gubernatorial ticket has over Cambiemos in Buenos Aires province, the fact that only a simple majority is needed to win the province makes a Peronist takeover in the province more likely.
The Frente de Todos coalition’s gubernatorial candidate for Buenos Aires province is leading the race as 36.6% of the province’s electorate intends to vote for him, compared with only 34.6% for Vidal in the primary elections, according to the latest poll from Aragon. “Buenos Aires Governor Maria Eugenia Vidal is in more danger [of losing the election] than Macri, in a province that represents 38% of the nation’s electorate, there is a higher chance the ruling party will lose the province,” explained pollster Raul Aragon to Reorg.
Meanwhile, the latest poll from Management & Fit shows Kicillof leading with 44% of voter intention, a tight margin over Vidal, who garners 42.6% of voters considering only the gubernatorial race.
Evidencing the effects that Macri and Kirchner may be having on voter partiality, when voters are asked about their preference between the gubernatorial candidates themselves, the margin narrows. However, when Kiciloff is paired with Fernandez, and Vidal with Macri, and voters are asked about which gubernatorial candidate they support more, the gap widens in favor of Kicillof, leading with 45% compared with 39% for Vidal, showing that voter frustration with President Macri may be hurting Vidal’s chances to secure a victory in the province.
The primaries, or PASO, are viewed as the first real test for the candidates before the October elections, as its results tend to be a more accurate indicator for determining who will win the provincial elections, since there is no potential second-round vote as there is for the presidency.
Political analyst Enrique Zuleta Puceiro, who leads the OPSM political consultancy firm, warned that the Buenos Aires province’s urban middle class had really been hurt by utility rate increases and inflation, and that this could cost Vidal in the election. This was reflected by a recent report from the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL), showing that the purchasing power of the average salary in Argentina plunged by 10% in the first quarter of 2019. “Vidal has fallen a lot in the polls because of these economic issues, giving Kicillof more chances of winning,” he explained to Reorg.
Voters are attracted to the candidates for different reasons. Dissatisfaction with the economy is driving the support for the Fernández-Kirchner ticket, while low employment, reduced purchasing power and the overall economic situation are leading the push behind the Peronist voter intention, according to a poll from Oh! Panel. In contrast, the voter intention supporting Juntos por el Cambio is driven by a rejection by the overall policies pushed forward by Cristina Kirchner during her presidency, to continue improving democratic institutions and to boost foreign investments in the country, the same poll shows, as reproduced below:
Frente de Todos, led by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner, continues to lead with 42% intention vote, according to Oh! Panel, while Juntos por el Cambio, led by Macri and Pichetto, follows with 37% vote intention as of July. However, under a second-round scenario, the gap narrows to 43% who believe Kirchnerism will secure a victory compared with 41% for the Juntos por el Cambio coalition.
Vidal leads the ranks with the largest positive image among politicians within the official Cambiemos party with about 43% gross positive image, according to a poll from Universidad de San Andrés. However, Vidal lost more than 30 points compared with the 75% positive image as of the end of 2017 before the financial crisis unfolded in early 2018, driving the peso to lose more than half of its value, according to the same poll. At the national level, in a poll surveying the 23 provinces and the City of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof shows a positive image of 28%, while both candidates have a negative image of about 48% according to Universidad de San Andrés, as reproduced below:
Although more political analysts are seriously evaluating a scenario where President Macri retains the presidency and Cristina Kirchner’s party wins Buenos Aires province, it would still be an anomaly. “If Kicillof were to win in Buenos Aires province and Macri the presidency, there could be problems in terms of the ability for each party to implement their agenda,” Rouvier said, “Yet this possibility is far from certain, as very few times in Argentina’s history has the leadership of Buenos Aires province and the nation been divided between two parties.” This is because the party that wins that province tends to give a boost to the candidate of the same party running for presidency, as Vidal did for Macri in 2015, propelling him to a second round election win for the presidency. That situation that could be repeated by Kicillof and Fernandez.
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