Interest rates remain a critical point of concern for global investors as distressed activity accelerates across North America, Europe and Asia.

In North America, 32 debtors have filed for chapter 11 thus far in August, heavily represented by real estate names as commercial property owners wrestle with increased interest costs for floating-rate debt. While market participants are encouraged by benign consumer and producer price data, stronger-than-expected retail sales last week and Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday highlighting “upside risks to inflation,” many now expect that a fed funds rate of over 5% will likely endure. 

In the wake of the tragic Maui wildfires, restructuring advisors have been circling Hawaiian Electric Industries, triggering questions and concerns regarding potential liabilities by market participants in both the municipals and corporate markets. 

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, after boosting its key interest rate to a 22-year high in June, is confronting inflation that is much stronger than the United States, even as economic growth is weaker. 

In Asia, The Peoples Bank of China held its prime loan rate at 4.2% yesterday and lowered its one-year LPR to 3.45% from 3.55%, a smaller move than was expected by many economists. China is facing increased stress in its property sector, with bellwether developer Country Garden and shadow banking giant Zhongzhi Enterprise Group each lurching toward restructurings. 

Reorg’s editorial team is delivering the most in-depth data, analysis and reporting on thousands of credits across the full credit lifecycle. A glimpse into our offering is below:

Country Garden
Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd.’s onshore corporate bonds have all been suspended. The suspension announcements cited Country Garden’s Aug. 10 profit warning announcement to the Hong Kong exchange, in which the company stated the difficult situation facing the real estate industry.
» Continue Reading

Ukraine
The country’s sovereign eurobonds have stabilized in price following a 10-point climb in the past month, marking the highest price for Ukraine’s $19.7 billion of hard currency notes since June 2022. Ukraine’s $912 million 7.75% 2024 bonds have risen to 34/35, nearly doubling in price since mid-May when they were at 18 cents. 
» Continue Reading

Hawaiian Electric Co.
The utility provider, a subsidiary of Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc., is potentially liable for the damage associated with the Lahaina/Maui fire if the lawsuits brought against it should prove successful, according to market sources. Hawaiien Electric Co. is the parent company of Maui Electric Co., the operating company that allegedly started and perhaps exacerbated the speed and intensity of the Aug. 8 wildfire. 
» Continue Reading

GoTo Group
The group’s sponsors snapped up $160 million of the company’s outstanding debt during the second quarter of 2023, according to sources. It was not immediately known whether the amount was bought back by one, or both, of the company’s sponsors.
» Continue Reading

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Chinese regulators take further steps to cut down payments for home buyers and encourage banks to lower interest rates on existing mortgages, according to joint statements issued by the People’s Bank of China and National Administration of Financial Regulation on Thursday, Aug. 31. The minimum down payment will be uniformly reduced to no less than 20% for first home purchases and no less than 30% for second home purchases. The lower limit of mortgage interest rate for second home purchase had been adjusted to the level of related LPR+20 bps while the lower limit of mortgage interest rate for first home purchases remained at the level of related LPR-20 bps.

India’s GDP surged by 7.8% in April-June, surpassing predictions of 7.7% and up from 6.1% in the previous quarter and marked the highest in four quarters, driven by strong services sector and government capital spending. However experts suggest faster expansion in the first half of the financial year might give way to slower growth in the latter half, Nikkei Asia reported.

Shanghai Composite Index went up 0.34% to 3,130 as of 2:04 p.m. Beijing Time. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index went up 0.28% to close at 32,711, while Australia’s S&P/ASX200 went down 0.36% to close at 7,279. Hong Kong market is closed today due to No. 9 Typhoon.

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Reorg’s editorial leadership has selected the following list of the most compelling and topical situations across our global coverage universe.

As part of Reorg’s global data and analytics product expansion, Fundamentals by Reorg now offers earnings transcripts of both public and private debt issuers. For further inquiries, please email questions@reorg.com.

Twenty-four debtors filed for chapter 11 over the past two weeks, a list dominated by real estate names with liabilities of less than $10 million. The sector has been hard hit by rising interest rates and a sluggish recovery in occupancy as the pandemic’s “work from home” model becomes a permanent feature of the American landscape. Those hoping for relief in the form of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been heartened by economic data showing that pricing pressures are abating, but the ongoing strength in the labor markets supports the theory that the Fed will hold rates at their current level, the highest since 2001, for an extended period. A Labor Department report on Friday, Aug. 4, showed that the U.S. added 187,000 jobs in July, slightly less than consensus expectations, while the employment rate fell to 3.5%. The Fed meets again in September, with most expecting policymakers to stand pat.

Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. to AA+ from AAA on Tuesday, Aug. 1, citing “fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general debt burden and the erosion of governance relative to AA and AAA rated peers.” Fitch is the second ratings agency to downgrade the U.S. In 2011, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the U.S. to AA+ from AAA. Moody’s and DBRS have maintained their AAA ratings on U.S. Treasury bills, or T-bills. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.18% on Thursday, Aug. 3, from 3.95% on Aug. 1.

In Europe, the second-quarter earnings season is revealing continued pressure on EBITDA margins across nations and industries. This was nowhere more evident than at French supermarket chain Casino, whose management revised its 2023 EBITDA guidance down by 51% from a forecast given just a month earlier. The heavily slimmed-down EBITDA budget was included in a July 27 presentation detailing Casino’s in-principle new-money and restructuring agreement with a consortium of investors led by EP Global Commerce and creditors holding more than two-thirds of its term loan B debt. Casino is now drafting lockup agreements and aims to implement the €8 billion debt restructuring under an accelerated safeguard proceeding by October 2023.

In Asia, while closely watched Dalian Wanda managed to transfer funds at the eleventh hour to redeem its $400 million offshore notes due July 23, the repayment failed to allay concerns around China’s real estate market. Turmoil has more recently spread to state-backed names such as Greenland Holdings and Sino-Ocean Group, and despite declarations of policy easing, the position of key developers remains precarious. Country Garden, or CoGard, recently announced an expected net loss for the first six months of 2023, compared with a net profit of 1.91 billion Chinese yuan ($268.5 million) for the year-earlier period. In the same announcement, CoGard declared it would actively seek guidance and support from the government and regulatory authorities.

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During the first half of 2023, Reorg saw 23 debtors close restructurings, considerably more than the 14 that closed deals in H2’22 and 15 in H1’22.

Restructuring activity has increased in 2023, but still falls short of 2020 levels, which saw 61 restructurings close across the year.

Only 35% of restructurings closed consensually, out of court, in H1’23. This compares with 43% and 60% in H1’22 and H2’22 respectively. There appears to be a trend of debtors being more likely to pursue in-court restructurings, with a correlating increase in challenge – 22% of deals attracted a challenge in H1’23, compared to 17% during the whole of 2022.

There are 39 restructurings currently live, 14 of which are in a court process, notably seven are in U.K. court processes (CVAs, Scheme or Part 26A Plans). As of January, this number was 45, suggesting that deals are closing.

Included in the definition of restructuring are both consensual and non-consensual transactions, which featured at least one of the following: (i) an exchange of existing debt for new debt with different terms; (ii) the provision of new money through a new instrument; (iii) the equitization of existing debt instruments; and (iv) the amendment and extension of the maturity date of existing debt instruments.

Read the full article here.

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Traditional risk prediction models only scratch the surface when it comes to assessing risks. However, with Reorg’s Restructuring Risk Index (RRRI™), Reorg has transformed this landscape with a ground-breaking AI-driven solution. The RRRI generates a predictive likelihood of any U.S. publicly traded company entering a restructuring process and filing for bankruptcy.

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Earlier this week, the Reorg team hosted a live, in-person panel event in New York! The event, titled From Issuance to Workout: Opportunities and Risks in Times of Volatility, featured two panels covering the most topical items in the leveraged finance and distressed credit markets.

Following an introduction by Sarah Gefter, Reorg’s Managing Director – Americas Credit, the first panel took the stage.

This panel, moderated by Reorg’s SVP & Head of Research – HY, covered “Issuer Funding Trends in the Current Credit Climate” included the following experts:

• Chris Bonner | Head of Leveraged Capital Markets – Goldman Sachs
• Jane Lawrence | Portfolio Manager – Sound Point
• Michael Nechamkin | Chief Investment Officer – Octagon
• Brian Ziemer | Senior Vice President – Antares Capital

The conversation explored the following questions:

• What are the key factors causing a shift to unitranche issuance in the types of deals that are typically funded in the broadly syndicated loans and/or high-yield bond market?
• Is this a sustaining trend? If so, why? If not, what are key steps investors in BSL and/or bond markets are taking to claw back issuer business.
• And finally, what is the role syndicates are playing in the evolving financing structures, and how are they adapting?

The second panel covered “Distress in Times of Volatility” and was moderated by Adelene Lee, SVP & Managing Editor, Americas Core Credit, and included the following expert speakers:

• Ana Alfonso | Partner, Business Reorganization & Restructuring – Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP
• Christopher Dunlop | Managing Director, Capital Markets – Houlihan Lokey
• Ari Lefkovits | Managing Director – Lazard
• Giac Picco | Managing Director – KKR
• Phil Saliba | Managing Director, Head of Restructuring Capital Markets – Deutsche Bank

Following a tumultuous year, the panel explored some of the most important questions restructuring professionals are facing in the current market:

• What impact has market volatility had on distressed companies’ options?
• Where are distressed debt funds deploying capital, and where are the sweet spots?
•  Is creditor-on-creditor violence set to continue? How has this changed market relationships and dynamics between lenders and borrowers? And are lenders more able to employ more restrictive covenant language?
• What are the long-term implications of bank bailouts on the market and distressed opportunities?

The content was followed by an open cocktail and networking reception, where the team was thrilled to connect more with our incredible roster of speakers, and clients from over 50 organizations!

Thank you to all of our event participants and attendees for making it an incredible evening of learning, connection, and fun!

If you’d like to stay in the loop on future Reorg events, please visit our Events & Webinars page. And if you’d like to learn more about Reorg, request a demo today.

Breaking down the intricacies of complex or long-term situations over time can be an elaborate or daunting task. But Reorg’s robust and well-organized financial analyses can easily help you and your team get up to speed on even the most rapidly developing situations.

For example, our coverage of Revlon’s restructuring over the past several years includes regularly updated financial tear sheets, covenants tear sheets, exchange models, waterfall models, Excel uploads of management projections and plan treatment models, including (but not limited to) the following:

• In 2020 Reorg published exchange models after the BrandCo transaction;
• In 2021 Reorg published a waterfall model illustrating BrandCo and RemainCo lenders’ recoveries;
• Earlier this year, Reorg published a plan treatment model illustrating treatment and proposed recoveries for BrandCo and RemainCo lenders, rights offering participants and backstop parties; and
• Finally, just after Revlon emerged from chapter 11 this month, Reorg developed and published an analysis of Revlon’s exit term loan.

If you’d like to explore all of the Revlon coverage in between, or learn more about the financial analysis we have available on the next topical restructuring you work on, request a trial

Reorg delivers critical data and analysis for leveraged finance and restructuring professionals.

Here are some examples of coverage through the credit lifecycle from performing and primary markets to distressed, restructuring and post-reorg that you and your team could access through a subscription to Reorg.

Americas

In the Americas, 14 debtors filed for chapter 11 over the past two weeks, including six with liabilities in excess of $100 million. Bed Bath & Beyond entered the process on April 23, stating that “long shot transactions” failed to stabilize the company; the debtors now seek speedy store liquidations and potential 363 sales of other assets. Earnings season has kicked into high gear, with regional banks including First Republic a particular point of focus as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank prompted a flow of deposits into larger institutions. The Federal Reserve meets next week, with most market participants expecting another rate increase of 25 bps despite a lower-than-expected first-quarter GDP print; nonfarm payrolls for April were released May 5.

Elevate Textiles

Elevate Textiles and sponsor Platinum Equity are negotiating with lenders to the textiles maker on a potential deal to be executed in a bankruptcy filing that would hand over substantially all reorganized equity to lenders in exchange for debt cancellation. Platinum Equity is expected to receive a small amount of new equity following restructuring, the sources said. Lenders are also expected to receive take-back paper. However, negotiations are ongoing and the parties may execute a restructuring out of court. >> Continue reading.

Securus Technologies

Securus Technologies disclosed last week that its majority owners committed $60 million of additional capital to support the business and that it is seeking a refinancing of its near-term debt maturities. The Dallas-based provider of telecom services to incarcerated people told investors that it expects to refinance its outstanding debt this year. Securus has an RCF due August 2024, a first lien term loan due November 2024 and a second lien term loan due 2025. >> Continue reading.

Europe

In Europe, the primary bond and loan markets resumed after the Easter break. A mixed bouquet of borrowers including hotel group Travelodge, chemicals producer CABB and a number of pharmaceutical-linked companies raised new debt to refinance, while frozen bread specialist Monbake locked in terms for a two-year amend-and-extend solution to its 2025 maturity. In restructuring, all eyes were on Justice Thomas Leech’s 164-page judgment in Adler’s contested English restructuring plan, which rejected a pari passu challenge to the company’s plan. The English High Court later ruled that the dissenting hedge funds cannot appeal the judgment.

Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA

A group of Casino’s €1.425 billion term loan B holders have mandated law firm Latham & Watkins as the retailer considers options to merge its French retail arm with Teract, sources told Reorg. While details on the merger remain limited, the transaction contemplates that two separate entities will be created. One will house all the retail activities of Casino and Teract in France (newco) and is expected to be listed and controlled by Casino. The other, named Teract Ferme France, would be in charge of supplying local agricultural products and controlled by InVivo. >> Continue reading.

UniCredit

Italian bank UniCredit said this week it will call its €1.25 billion 6.625% additional tier one notes at par, together with accrued and unpaid interest, on June 3. Investors had been buying into the discounted bond through April on the back of shivers stemming from Credit Suisse’s regulator led merger with UBS, which resulted in a $16 billion wipeout of Credit Suisse AT1 notes. >> Continue reading.

Asia

In Asia, Dalian Wanda focused attention on differing dynamics influencing onshore versus offshore China creditors through the lens of commercial bank loans as it seeks maturity extensions, while in India, eyes are again on perennial last-minute escape artist Vedanta, which managed to reduce its gross debt by about $1 billion in April but still faces a $500 million bond maturing in May. In Indonesia, Lippo Karawaci CEO John Riady has publicly expressed support for Lippo Malls Retail Investment Trust ahead of a widely anticipated liability management exercise. But the true nature and extent of that support from Lippo Karawaci – a 58.07% shareholder in Lippo Malls – remains to be seen.

Lippo Karawaci / Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

John Riady, CEO of Indonesian property and healthcare conglomerate PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk, or LPKR, said on an April 27 earnings call that the company continues to support Lippo Malls Retail Investment Trust, or LMIRT, “as much as we can.” But the nature and extent of that support from 58.07% shareholder LPKR remains an open question, as LMIRT heads toward a widely anticipated liability management exercise. >> Continue reading.

Sunac China Holdings

A group of dissenting creditors advised by Alvarez & Marsal and Latham & Watkins emerged to contest Chinese real estate developer Sunac’s announced restructuring proposal. The company’s advisors cautioned the action was value destructive and that the company reserved all rights and remedies. Meanwhile, A&M and Latham advised creditors on a conference call not to sign the company’s RSA and to demand that the company address specific material deficiencies in its proposal. >> Continue reading.

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On May 10, Reorg’s Managing Editor Julie Miecamp, Senior Legal Director Chetna Mistry, Senior Legal Analyst Temitope Adesanya and Senior High Yield Credit Analyst Cedrick Cassin discussed Casino’s potential restructuring options under its bonds documentation.

You can find recent analysis on Casino here.

To watch the replay click here.

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